Wednesday, March 6, 2019

EVs projected to be 10% of sales by 2024

Adoption of new technologies typically follows a bell curve. At first, sales seem pitiful. For a long time, it seems a fringe product and mainstream producers bask in their denial. But once the “early majority” grab hold, growth is exponential.

According to recent projections, electric cars will be cheaper to own—without subsidies—by 2022 and by 2024 sales will reach 10%. Since cars lifespan averages around 12 years, it will take a couple decades to replace them, unless gas prices spike or government steps up incentives.

By 2030, as the cost of batteries keeps falling, the report projects that sales could grow to 21 million vehicles for the year. But that’s 14 million fewer electric cars than the industry plans to make; Deloitte’s researchers think that sales won’t match the investments car companies are putting into EVs.

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